A strong 2025 Q4 ahead?

The stars are starting to align. Somtimes, that’s a good thing. Other times they can align for all the wrong reasons leaving everyone to wonder what the heck just happened. The fall of 2025 looks different, however. It looks positive. And I think it’s going to be a very good time for aircraft buyers and sellers alike.

“Buyers AND sellers,” you say? “How can that be?”

Let’s take a look at the situation buyers are facing. The Trump tax cuts and permanent 100% bonus depreciation were just codified into law and that’s big news for people wanting/needing to get money off the books — money they’ve not been wanting to spend (or borrow) with higher interest rates. Throw into the mixture the possible interest rate cuts that have been floated by all of the talking heads, and it becomes almost too enticing to not loosen the finance belt a notch or two in order to make some serious moves before the end of the tax year.

What about sellers though? In order to have a robust market don’t we need consistent sales inventory?

Yes, we do.

For quite some time now, the piston market has had below average inventory levels. Even lower when you look at some of the ridiculous prices people post for their airplanes and how long they’ve been “for sale.” These aren’t airplanes that are truly available. No, their owners are just testing the waters. However, there are other sellers out there who have been riding the fence for a while now. But, things are changing. They are sensing that buyers have reasons to be a little more motivated and may even be willing to pay slightly higher prices than they have been over the past year. And that helps bring the market into equilibrium.

Time, of course, will tell. What do you think? When we’re in January 2026 and looking back on the last three or four months of 2025, will this prediction turn out to be true or will it be a complete flop like a cheap fly-in pancake? One thing’s for sure, it’s going to be fun to watch!